The Lithium Triangle: When Critical Minerals Become Weapons

Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile sit atop 60% of global lithium reserves. As electric vehicle adoption accelerates and grid storage deployment expands, these three nations hold leverage that few fully appreciate.

The Resource Nationalism Playbook

Bolivia has already nationalized its lithium industry. Chile is tightening state control through Codelco. Argentina—historically the most market-friendly—is facing political pressure to follow suit.

The pattern is familiar: commodity boom attracts foreign investment, extraction proceeds, political winds shift, nationalization follows. Lithium is following the copper playbook of the 1970s.

What the Market Is Missing

Current lithium pricing assumes continued supply expansion. The mining projects are real. But the assumption that those projects will operate under stable regulatory regimes is not priced in.

We estimate a 65% probability of significant resource nationalism measures in at least one Lithium Triangle country by 2026. Market pricing implies closer to 25%.

Implications

The gap between our assessment and market pricing represents a structural dislocation. Lithium supply disruption would ripple through battery manufacturers, automakers, and grid operators.

For detailed strategic analysis, see the Monster Dossier.